Week 4 NFL Picks: Can I Borrow Some Money?

Fabulous riches await at a reasonable 90% APR!!

So last week was a disaster. 0-3. Not uncommon. There used to be some gambling sites where you paid 10 dollars for a week's worth of games. You bet them all, and if you got all 16 right you would get a million bucks or something like that. But they also paid out if you LOST every game. Maybe that should have been my angle instead.

Anyway, Week 4 lines are out.

Bills (-3, -120) over BENGALS - Two ways to look at this: either the Bills are emotionally spent after rallying to squash the Patriots last weekend and this is the letdown game, or the Bills are a legit 3-0 team playing an awful Bengals team and this line's about four points too low. I'll go with the latter.

Vikings (-2, -115) over CHIEFS - Vikings aren't THAT bad. Like, not 0-16 bad. Gotta win sometime, this week's as good as any.

Steelers (+4, -115) over TEXANS - I can't imagine too many teams the Steelers would get 4 points against. It's not a long list. The Texans are not one of the teams that should be on that list.

WEEK 3: 0-3, Bet $150, Claimed $0!
SEASON: 2-5-2, Bet $450, Claimed $287.12, DOWN $162.88

Week 3 Photo Finishes: BOO THIS MAN!

And STAY DOWN!

27.7 points. That's all it would take for Mike to leapfrog Aaron tonight and pick up win #1. His sole representative is Santana Moss, long time boil on the asscheek of The Heftington Post. Rationally or not, I despise this man. If you're keeping track on your Heftington Post Haterometer, he's juuuuust a notch to the right of Cedric Benson and his cloven hoofs, so close to Steve Smith he can practically taste his B.O., and about 1000 spots to the left of St. Matthew of Stafford.

This week, only 3 receivers went over 27.7. Wes Welker (45.6 pts) was one. The other two were future Hall of Famers Torrey Smith (41.7) and Victor Cruz (28.5). The odds are certainly long. The Cowboys are vulnerable against the pass, but 27.7 is a big number. Like either 2 TD's or 175 yards big. I could see Moss breaking free for a long touchdown, but he's not a volume guy. He's a big play fluke guy. My guess, Moss plays just well enough to nab Mike another Golden Dong trophy, but not overtake Aaron.

Here We Go Again: Steelers-Colts Live Blog

Week 3 Gambling Picks: Stupid Concussions

Above: The only place currently taking action on Eagles-Giants.

Not a big buildup here since I did Power Rankings yesterday. The Week 3 lines are out. Sort of. A bunch of games don't have lines right now, this usually means a quarterback is hurt. That's definitely the case in Eagles-Giants and Cowboys-Redskins. I don't know what's going on with the other ones.

Lions (-4, -105) over VIKINGS: Oooh! Hefty's going against the popular opinion (remember last week's discussion of -110 being the normal return on an evenly distributed bet...) for the first time all season. And maybe it's just me, but I didn't even feel like I was going out on a limb. Peterson is a monster, but Detroit's defensive line is one of the best in the league. We all know McNabb's tires are all out of tread. And yes, I know back in Week 1 I said Detroit was a bad road team, but it's time to start looking at this year's Lions team as a rebirth of a once awful franchise.

BROWNS (-3, +110) over Dolphins: This one's really going against the grain. A positive return means I stand to win $55 on my $50 bet. Neither of these teams really do anything that excites me, but I'll take my chances that the home team, who has one of the more intimidating home stadiums in the league at that, prevails in a battle of bad teams. Run, Peyton, Run.

BEARS (+4, -115) over Packers: The upset special. I like the Bears in this game outright, honestly. The bad blood is obvious, but last year's NFC Championship should still be fresh in the Bears minds. Packers secondary is banged up; they'll be without CB Tramon Williams, and S Nick Collins.

WEEK 2: 1-1-1, Bet $150, Claimed $141.67

SEASON: 2-2-2, Bet $300, Claimed $287.12, DOWN $12.88

Week 2 Power Rankings: Premature Congratulations

If you want this kid's trophy, you'll have to pry it out of his cold, dead, juvenile diabetic hands.

Look, we're two weeks in. We may think we know how this season's panning out, but really, it's two weeks. As defending league champion Mr. X reminded me, two years ago he started out 2-0 and went 1-11 over the final 11 weeks. It's early. In fact, in the interest of keeping this purposely muddled and brief, we're doing only one or two lines of commentary for each team.

1. Adam (2-0, 316.8 pts)

2. Shelby (2-0, 348.7 pts)

I give Adam a nod because Brady isn't a huge advantage over Brees, but Ray Rice certainly is over Peyton Hillis. Besides, Shelby's team has been hit HARD by the injury bug (Austin, Manningham, Aaron Hernandez) and I see him struggling a little for the next week or two.

3. Aaron (1-1, 243.1)

4. Jordan (0-2, 246.6)

Take your pick, but both teams have dynamic duos at running back (Peterson and Forte, McCoy and McFadden), but I give the nod to the team with the proven QB that's underachieving (Roethlisberger) instead of the overachieving rookie (Cam Newton).

5. Craig (1-1, 270.3)

By the way, your 2011 Keynote Speakers at the Overachievement Conference: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jahvid Best, and Fred Jackson. Double down on those Bills, Craigger!

6. Ryan (2-0, 259.8)

The defending champ is 2-0, which is probably all the reason I need to give for putting him in the top half of the rankings.

7. Dave (1-1, 253.6)

8. Mike (0-2, 245.4)

Love Dave's Megatron-Welker-Mike Williams troika. That's enough to get the edge over Mike's squad, which has a few more question marks as I see it.

9. Melvin (0-2, 210.1)

This team could make some noise, it's just waiting for Chris Johnson to break out of hibernation.

10. Rich (2-0, 210.2)

He's won the "Winning By The Skin Of Your Ballbag" award PRESENTED BY GMC, twice already. He isn't scoring but neither are his opponents. Irony Dept: Chad Ochocinco is currently 85th in WR scoring.

11. Shawn (1-1, 208.6)

I still say Flacco dooms this team. Shawn has some sleeping giants at WR though.

12. Hefty (0-2, 206.7)

I call shenanigans on Katy Perry. I really don't think she's the type of girl who's having casual group sex, getting blackout drunk, and committing arrestable crimes on a weekly basis. Oh, and my team blows by the way.

Grade The Trade: Melvin's Clearinghouse Edition

Matt Melvin wants to seeya in a Kia!

The Trade: Melvin sends Malcom Floyd and Ahmad Bradshaw to Mr. X in exchange for Reggie Wayne and Ryan Grant.

The Breakdown: Melvin makes his second (!!!) trade of the young season, in your classic "Bad WR-Good RB for Good WR-Bad RB" deal. Every single player in this trade comes with a question mark. For Floyd, it's a groin injury and low reception totals. For Bradshaw, it's injury history and Brandon Jacobs vulturing the goal line carries. For Reggie Wayne, it's the Colts' sagging offense behind Kerry Collins. For Ryan Grant, it's losing his job to James Starks. The best way to look at this deal is to see what it does to each team's lineups.

Melvin - With CJ2K and Ryan Matthews in tow, Melvin could afford to jettison a running back in order to get Braylon Edwards out of his WR3 spot. He now boasts a very solid receiving crew of Maclin, Wayne, and Devery Henderson, who keeps the seat warm until Marques Colston's collarbone is back in one piece. Overall, Melvin didn't subtract too much from his lineup, and made a nice addition. Ryan Grant now likely fills the RB4 spot behind CJ Spiller.

Mr. X - With his entire bench a MASH Unit (seriously, go check his team out. Everybody on the bench is questionable, other than the Saints D and Sam Bradford), X needed a healthy body at RB. He got one, and the fact that Bradshaw is playing the atrocious Eagles run defense this week is a delicious perk. Whether or not you think Ryan won this trade really comes down to whether or not you want to trust Steve Smith (CAR) week in and week out. With a WR3 you have that flexibility. With a WR2, you do not. Listen, I know Cam Newton is making a star out of Smith so far this season, but that well's going to dry up faster than Chaz Bono's discarded ovaries (High five for the tranny joke, bro!!!). I understand the need for Ryan to have done something to address the need at RB. I'm just not certain this was the best move to make for overall roster structure. If I were in his shoes, you bet your sweet bippy I would have been trying to sell high on Smith.

My Grade: Melvin improves his 2011 trade record to 2-0 with another slight victory.

Week 2 Photo Finishes: Now With 50% Less Drama!

Pictured: The only way Rich can lose tonight.

Well this week's Photo Finish column is even easier to write than last week's, so let's knock it out.

Shelby, Davis and Mr. X have all clinched a win.

Craig beat Melvin unless Ahmad Bradshaw has a 44 point game in store for Melvin tonight, which is really just a longer way of saying Craig beat Melvin.

Aaron holds on over Jordan, who is down 35 points with only the Giants D/ST left in the tank.

The only whiff of suspense comes from our most ethnically diverse matchup, between Rich and Shawn. Rich is up by 4.5 points and has Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Gibson playing tonight. Shawn is down to only his kicker, Josh Brown. Really the only way there'd be any drama here is if Nicks wasn't playing (he's currently listed as Questionable), but all indications this morning are that he's a go. Two catches and 35 yards or so from Nicks should be enough to put this one out of range for a kicker to make up the difference. Rich cruises comfortably tonight.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I'm not doing Power Rankings every week (obviously), but after Week 2 seems like a good time to take the league's temperature. I'll try to get something up by mid-week. If you bozos want to make any trades, I'd be more than willing to grade those for you as well. That's my new thing now, I'm calling everybody bozo.

The FIRST EVER Heftington Post Live Blog!!

Ok, I'm about the least tech-savvy blogger on the planet, but we're going to give this a try. You know how during a big game, we text each other jokes or we hop on the e-mail and beat a dead horse about Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robot movies? Well imagine all that, only in REAL TIME. No waiting for your iPhone to vibrate, just live feedback and copious amounts of hilarity.

I HAVE NO IDEA HOW THIS WORKS, but Kissing Suzy Kolber uses it a lot and apparently it does. Due to our small number of readers, this is actually ideal, it should be much easier to follow the conversation. Come check it out on Sunday night, I'll be on for the entirety of the Eagles-Falcons game, even if it's just me on there and I'm telling myself all the awesome jokes.

Di Di Mau!! Your Week 2 Gambling Fix!!

My goal here would be 17 straight Simpsons gambling pictures. 2 for 2 so far!

Some real interesting lines this week. Did you ever think you'd see a day when the once 0-16 Lions would be favored by 8.5 points? What about the Steelers, who got pasted last week, giving 14.5 points against the Seahawks? How about the Bears, who thumped the Falcons last week, getting 7 points against the Saints? Is the Superdome really that hostile?? I'm staying away from all these games, though. Here's the three I'm putting my hard earned Monopoly money on.

Dallas (-3, -115) over SAN FRANCISCO: I know it sounds crazy, but if the Cowboys start 0-2, Jason Garrett's gotta be on the hot seat, right? Jerry might be especially trigger happy with one of the hottest coaching names in the NFL, Rob Ryan, waiting in the wings on the sidelines. I think this is an early must-win for the Cowboys, and I don't think the Niners are all that good. If the Cowboys kick to Ted Ginn, they deserve to lose.

San Diego (+7, -110) over NEW ENGLAND: Patriots, as great as they looked, 1) were playing the Dolphins, 2) have a short week after the Monday Night game, 3) lost one of their best offensive linemen, Dan Koppen to a broken ankle. Koppen has only missed one game in the last five years, and is one of the guys who keeps Brady's pants clean every weekend. Could be a big factor. I like San Diego outright in this one, but wouldn't be confident enough to bet the moneyline, which hasn't been released on Bodog yet anyway.

Tampa Bay (+3, -120) over MINNESOTA: I'm going to be stubborn on the Bucs. I have a hard time believing that Donovan McNabb, who failed to throw for more than 40 yards last week, can duplicate the success that Matthew Stafford had against the Buccaneers D. Aqib Talib and Ronde Barber will keep the clamps tight on McNabb's downfield weapons. The biggest question mark for me is if the Bucs offense can put points on the board, but without the Williams Wall that Minnesota is so used to relying on, the Bucs should be able to run the ball right down the Vikings throat.
Novice gambling tip: The -120 here means a lot of people are betting the Bucs on this particular line. I am lowering my potential winnings for what seems like a surer thing. I'm betting with the majority of people against Vegas on this one, and the majority's record versus Vegas is, as you can guess, not very good.

WEEK 1: 1-1-1
SEASON: 1-1-1
MONEY IN: $150
CASHED OUT: $145.45 (Won $95.45 on my $50 Eagles bet, Got my $50 back on the Cardinals push)
NET: Down $4.55 on the season.

Week 1 Photo Finishes: Not A Lot of Mystery

Jordan has a raging clue right now.

Well, we have the rare blessing of two Monday Night games, but they don't carry a lot of intrigue with them as it relates to our Week 1 matchups. We can safely declare the following winners: Ryan, Davis, and Deewaan.

Shelby is also a lock despite currently being down 10 points to Aaron. He has Brady and Aaron Hernandez tonight while Aaron is out of bullets. Luckily for Aaron, Brady failed to reach double digits one time last year. Luckily for Shelby, it was his bye week.

Craig and Rich have a couple of wide receivers yet to go and a deadlock, but Rich's guys (Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco) are both better on their own than Craig's Jacoby Ford. The fact that it's two on one, and I think Rich ends up winning by 10 or more tonight.

I was also ready to write off Jordan (down 27 points, only Darren McFadden to play) entirely in his game against Shawn (BenJarvusGreenEllis), until I saw how many fantasy points McFadden had in last year's game against Denver, 48.6. While that's certainly reason for Jordan to have hope, I would expect Green-Ellis to be a factor at the goal line even if he doesn't see the bulk of the carries for New England tonight. Shawn will walk away from this one 1-0, but I think McFadden makes things interesting in the nightcap.

Free Money!! Your Week 1 NFL Picks

Crack open a white wine spritzer and join me for some Week 1 NFL picks!!

There are very few reasons why someone with a borderline gambling addiction would voluntarily stop gambling. Maybe he got in too deep with the mob. Maybe his bookie broke his legs. Maybe he replaced the thrill of the bet with Jesus or black tar heroin. Most of the time, though, it's because he's terrible at it and he has a moment of clarity. That was the case with me. After college, I had the glorious cocktail of a steady income, no local friends, no bills ($550 rent!! I would murder a family of 6 to pay that little again.), a gas leak in the apartment (maybe that explains the low rent), more boxed sangria than a quinceanara, and a Sportsbook.com account.

I bet. And I bet often. I lost often. When I won, I would roll that money into the next bet. I'll let you guess how that worked out.

Looking back now, I'm pretty sure my biggest problem was the way I bet. I made a lot of sucker bets like three-team parlays, promising a big payoff if I got three games right on the same day. I bet sports I didn't follow closely, like European soccer. I bet on longshots to win futures bets, like exact outcomes to seven game series. I bet ridiculous things like political outcomes (Hillary winning the presidency in 2008 would have brought in something like 35-1 when I placed the bet in 2005. No wonder I'm not an Obama fan.). Shit, I might have even laid some action on the Oscars one year if I'm remembering correctly. Did I mention the gas leak in my apartment yet?

Anyway, the point is I was spraying wildly with a shotgun when I should have been taking aim with a rifle. So, now I'm going to test my theory. Although I'm in no way going to gamble on any of these games with actual money (not a Bill Simmons-schtick, just spending all my spare coin on diapers lately), I'm going to make three NFL picks a week. We'll assume $50 per game, and I'll keep a running total throughout the year on how profitable or disastrous this NFL season would have turned out for me.

WEEK 1 LINES

TAMPA BAY (-1, -110) over Detroit: I like both of these teams this year. Tampa is an up and coming team that I could see in the playoffs, and Detroit has a great defensive line and a lot of young offensive weapons. The problem here is that Detroit has won a total of 2 road games in the past three years and they come into this game as more or less a pick 'em. I'll take Freeman and the Bucs to win their home opener.

Philadelphia (-5 1/2, -110) over ST. LOUIS: The dream team's season gets underway in St. Louis, and while the Rams can't be taken lightly, they certainly can't match the overall talent level of the Eagles. I see a Eagles offense with oodles of speed that gets to play on turf, and a young opposing QB in Sam Bradford, who gets first crack at navigating the choppy Nnamdi-DRC-Asante waters to move his team down the field. Don't see it happening.

ARIZONA (-7, -110) over Carolina: Cam Newton's first NFL start, on the road. If Kevin Kolb doesn't get a Stone Cold Stunner in the first half of the season like he did last year, I think the Cards win big.

Division Preview 4 of 4: The Shitbirds

Aaron, Jordan, and Deewaan have already staked their claim as preseason darlings in their divisions. Who will be the fourth?

Tiebreaker this year is "most faces punched."

HEFTY: I've been playing fantasy for about 15 years now. Drafted two or three teams most years. I can't ever remember drafting a lesser running back duo than LeGarrette and DeAngelo. They're underwhelming in every way possible. The strange thing? I'm not worried about it one bit. LeGarrette has me hypnotized with thoughts that he'll be a 15 TD guy this year. The guy is a mentally unstable bulldozer. I watched the Oregon facepunch video like ten times the other day. I love him. DeAngelo has at one point in his life been a 20 TD guy. I'm not saying he'll come close this year. But I like him as a #2, especially when I've got his platoon buddy Jonathan Stewart. Hopefully Ron Rivera settles on a favorite, something John Fox could never do.

The Vick pick is certainly risky, but guys who put up 60 point weeks make that risk easier to stomach. I love my WRs, as I said before, they're all high-volume target and catch guys. I am completely glass-half-full on my team this year.

I know that LOOKS like Dez Bryant, but really, I just snuck in a picture of me taking a leisurely jog to change things up. This site can't be football players all the time.

DAVIS: You know, for a guy who finished 5th in scoring last year, Brees was frustrating to own. He only gave one monster game, when I was counting on a few. Consistent as they come though. Ray Rice is a perennial favorite of mine, especially the way he piles up catches out of the backfield. Beanie Wells, while still awful, at least doesn't appear to have any competition for the first time in his NFL career. Dez Bryant is in my team's division in the NFL and fantasy this year which scares the bejeezus out of me. He's ridiculously skilled. Kenny Britt doesn't play the Eagles this season, so there go half of his points. Plax will get his share of red-zone chances, not sure how many catches overall he'll get though. I was all ready to congratulate Adam on his TE-K-D ranks of 1-1-3 , until I realized I'm rolling with 2-3-2.

Pylon!! GAAAAAAAAAAAAH MY LEG!!!!

RYAN: X marks the spot where horrible first round picks are made. Arian Foster tweeted his hamstring's MRI yesterday and apparently the people who know these type of things say he can't play for a few weeks. The problem with these injuries are that they nag, and you have to rest them. Tough break, neighbor. Luckily, your RB2 is Knowshon Moreno, and he missed 3 games to a hamstring injury himself last year. Wait, that's not lucky at all. That's a fragile backfield. Have the antacids ready up until kickoff every week while you wait to see if these guys are playing. Mike Wallace is a pimp, but Reggie Wayne ties into my Peyton concerns and I think he'll have a down year too. Steve Smith finished 70th in WR scoring last year, and has Cam Newton throwing to him now. He's not a fantasy starter anymore. And I'm not breaking any news to Ryan, but the bench players here are all either old, hurt, or just kind of suck.

YOUR 2011 SHITBIRD DIVISION CHAMPIONS: No repeat for Ryan this year. In fact, no playoffs either. The smart money's probably on Davis here, but I've never made a smart bet in my life. Hefty takes the division.

Division Preview 3 of 4: The Dickbags

One week until the NFL season kicks off!!! Let's get the rest of the division previews taken care of.

Holding up that giant noggin? I'm just surprised his neck didn't give out earlier.

CRAIG: I'm worried about Peyton. Like I think he's definitely going to regret playing with a neck injury. Like I think he's going to make it much worse or play badly because of it. There were a bunch of times late in Favre's career where he tried to gut out injuries because he was a tough guy who had to play every game, but the fact that he was injured hurt his team worse than him sitting out and letting a healthy backup play. Peyton's going to have a rough season. Like outside of the top 15 quarterbacks. I'm calling it right now.

Now having said that, I'll admit that's awfully hunchy of me and not a good reason to say Craig misses the playoffs. In fact, there's enough pieces on the roster (including backup Ryan Fitzpatrick who can be good in streaks) that a playoff run is still likely. I don't love Craig's starting running backs but I'm guessing most people would take them over my two guys. It's a deep crew here, and guys like Lynch and Pierre Thomas can always spot start for a few weeks. One spot where Craig shouldn't have to do much lineup tweaking is at WR, where he spent two top picks on Andre Johnson and Larry Fitz. That's an incredible 1-2 punch, especially in our scoring format. I'm not ready to declare Craig the division favorite here, so let's move on.

Jeremy Maclin, seen here in full pads after his drastic offseason weight loss.

MELVIN: I was watching Sports Center last night and somebody said Philip Rivers should be the #1 fantasy pick. Obviously that's stupid and that guy lost all credibility right then and there, but think about it: quarterbacks always score the most points. Would you be surprised one bit if Rivers was the top scoring QB? He could be the top scorer in the league. Intriguing. Chris Johnson was a great pick for Melvin a round later than he should have been, and although right now he's a holdout, these things almost always work out with the guy getting some sort of deal and playing. Vincent Jackson last year was the exception, not the rule. Ahmad Bradshaw is the fantasy football equivalent of a high-fiber diet; a solid, dependable number 2. Let's play word association with the WRs. Colston - Declining. Maclin - IV drip. Malcom Floyd - Unproven. Braylon Edwards - Frustrating. Jerome Simpson - Bengal. Earl Bennett - Waiver wire. Yeah, I don't like these guys. Next?

Wow, you're right Coach. Those are some incredibly big TD's!

DAVE: Maybe the worst thing to happen to Matt Schaub is the Texans' attempt to fix their defense this offseason. Schaub was awesome BECAUSE the defense in Houston was so bad. Every game seemed like a garbage-time shootout. Hopefully Schaub can still get the ball in his hands late in the game because that's a fantasy goldmine. MoJo is a pretty good consolation prize for picking last, but the RB2 situation is dire from where I sit. Shonn Greene, Joe Addai, Danny Woodhead are going to have to be a patchwork quilt to try to get production out of this spot. Love the WRs here, Megatron and the Good Mike Williams are touchdown magnets, and even though Welker is banged up, Dave made a lot of smart picks late who could all play WR3 (Julio Jones, Amendola, Nate Washington always has a good game or two) if Welker misses time. Good squad. Jimmy Graham is an intriguing pickup who SAW SOME BIG TD'S late in the season. Pretty solid team. If I were the GM, I'd look to swap out some WR depth for an upgrade at RB2.

YOUR 2011 DICKBAGS DIVISION CHAMPION: Let's look at some facts. Dave is habitually terrible at managing his team over the course of a season, and Craig always makes three or four smart moves along the way to add useful pieces and get himself a playoff spot. But if I had to pick one of these three rosters to go into the season with, I'm picking Dave's. This is a solid roster with less question marks (in my mind) than either of the other two teams, and I don't think it will need a lot of tinkering along the way. Dave wins the division title with Craig nipping at his heels.