Monday, October 1, 2007

Week 4 Photo Finishes

Playing the putrid Bengals D, there's no telling how many points Brady and Moss might put up tonight.

Looking at the FantasyCast scoreboard, there doesn't seem to be a lot of close games. Even when I was writing Bajingos and Sasquatches, I wasn't even noticing a lot of obvious choices. Why? Well, bye weeks could be one reason, but I'd say that it's because two of the most high-octane offenses in the NFL meet tonight, when the Pats and Bengals face off. With that said, some games that would normally be locked up for one team, could end up being a lot closer than we think. Let's take a peek and try to figure out who comes out on top tonight.

Game 1: Jordan (56.1 point lead) vs. Adam (Tom Brady)
Analysis - 56.1 points is a ridiculous amount. But it's also damn close to the number Carson Palmer put up in Week 2 against the Browns. Here's the thing with tonight's game: the Patriots have a good defense, but might not be comfortably ahead at any point in the game. That's the kind of set-up that allows for quarterbacks to keep throwing, and throwing, and throwing. With Brady's weapons, and the sieve that is the Bengals pass defense, 56.1 points (roughly 400 yards and 6 TDs) isn't actually all that far fetched. Of course, it's not entirely probable either, so I'll say Jordan gets out of this one alive.

Game 2: Mike (Stephen Gostkowski and a 36 point lead) vs. Shawn (Randy Moss)
Analysis - Again, 36 points is attainable for a receiver like Moss. However, if the Patriots do find the end zone that many times, you're tacking on an extra 6 or 7 points for all the Gostkowski extra points, so now Moss theoretically needs around 45 points. That's a little much, even though I say he finds the end zone 2 or 3 times in this one. Mike comes away a winner.

Game 3: Melvin (9.5 point lead) vs. Shelby (Pats D and Shayne Graham)
Analysis - Graham's good for around 5 points, and the defense should get some sacks and find ways to force turnovers for the remainder. Kenny Watson will be the Bengals starting running back and could have a lot of trouble running against the Patriots, which may lead to some fumble issues. I look for Shelby to get the win here and improve to 2-2.
Bonus Prediction: Jake Peavy throws 7 scoreless innings to set up a Padres-Phillies first round showdown. Padres 3, Rockies 1

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

3-1? This game is at Coors field against the hottest team in the entire majors. Helton, Atkins and Holliday all hit over .300 against Peavy. I'm not saying the Rockies are going to win, but they're going to score more than one run. Actually, I am saying the Rockies are going to win.

Rockies 6 Padres 5

Citizen 10Cane said...

PSH!
I didn't start watching baseball three whole days ago so I could sit here and listen to you spout off stats like a damn Physics major!!
You treat me with some damn respect!

3-1 SANNY D!

Citizen 10Cane said...

Craig's A Genius Watch:
Rockies 6, Padres 5, 7th inning.

Anonymous said...

Damn Matt Holiday error away from being right on the money. Ah, well, I won on the Rockies money line (+125) anyway. I told you the under was the pick for MNF! Damn you for talking me out of it.

Citizen 10Cane said...

There's a reason that I used to be heavily addicted to internet sports gambling and then all of the sudden I'm not doing it any more.

It's because I stunk at it and I generally lost all my money.
I decided it might be more economical to keep that money and use it to pay bills and escape mountainous credit card debt.

"The More You Know..."

Anonymous said...

That's all well and good, but I'm up on the season and only down $20 to fantasy now that I've won pick 'em three weeks in a row. Playing with house money is where it's at!