Week 4 NFL Picks: Can I Borrow Some Money?

Fabulous riches await at a reasonable 90% APR!!

So last week was a disaster. 0-3. Not uncommon. There used to be some gambling sites where you paid 10 dollars for a week's worth of games. You bet them all, and if you got all 16 right you would get a million bucks or something like that. But they also paid out if you LOST every game. Maybe that should have been my angle instead.

Anyway, Week 4 lines are out.

Bills (-3, -120) over BENGALS - Two ways to look at this: either the Bills are emotionally spent after rallying to squash the Patriots last weekend and this is the letdown game, or the Bills are a legit 3-0 team playing an awful Bengals team and this line's about four points too low. I'll go with the latter.

Vikings (-2, -115) over CHIEFS - Vikings aren't THAT bad. Like, not 0-16 bad. Gotta win sometime, this week's as good as any.

Steelers (+4, -115) over TEXANS - I can't imagine too many teams the Steelers would get 4 points against. It's not a long list. The Texans are not one of the teams that should be on that list.

WEEK 3: 0-3, Bet $150, Claimed $0!
SEASON: 2-5-2, Bet $450, Claimed $287.12, DOWN $162.88

Week 3 Photo Finishes: BOO THIS MAN!

And STAY DOWN!

27.7 points. That's all it would take for Mike to leapfrog Aaron tonight and pick up win #1. His sole representative is Santana Moss, long time boil on the asscheek of The Heftington Post. Rationally or not, I despise this man. If you're keeping track on your Heftington Post Haterometer, he's juuuuust a notch to the right of Cedric Benson and his cloven hoofs, so close to Steve Smith he can practically taste his B.O., and about 1000 spots to the left of St. Matthew of Stafford.

This week, only 3 receivers went over 27.7. Wes Welker (45.6 pts) was one. The other two were future Hall of Famers Torrey Smith (41.7) and Victor Cruz (28.5). The odds are certainly long. The Cowboys are vulnerable against the pass, but 27.7 is a big number. Like either 2 TD's or 175 yards big. I could see Moss breaking free for a long touchdown, but he's not a volume guy. He's a big play fluke guy. My guess, Moss plays just well enough to nab Mike another Golden Dong trophy, but not overtake Aaron.

Here We Go Again: Steelers-Colts Live Blog

Week 3 Gambling Picks: Stupid Concussions

Above: The only place currently taking action on Eagles-Giants.

Not a big buildup here since I did Power Rankings yesterday. The Week 3 lines are out. Sort of. A bunch of games don't have lines right now, this usually means a quarterback is hurt. That's definitely the case in Eagles-Giants and Cowboys-Redskins. I don't know what's going on with the other ones.

Lions (-4, -105) over VIKINGS: Oooh! Hefty's going against the popular opinion (remember last week's discussion of -110 being the normal return on an evenly distributed bet...) for the first time all season. And maybe it's just me, but I didn't even feel like I was going out on a limb. Peterson is a monster, but Detroit's defensive line is one of the best in the league. We all know McNabb's tires are all out of tread. And yes, I know back in Week 1 I said Detroit was a bad road team, but it's time to start looking at this year's Lions team as a rebirth of a once awful franchise.

BROWNS (-3, +110) over Dolphins: This one's really going against the grain. A positive return means I stand to win $55 on my $50 bet. Neither of these teams really do anything that excites me, but I'll take my chances that the home team, who has one of the more intimidating home stadiums in the league at that, prevails in a battle of bad teams. Run, Peyton, Run.

BEARS (+4, -115) over Packers: The upset special. I like the Bears in this game outright, honestly. The bad blood is obvious, but last year's NFC Championship should still be fresh in the Bears minds. Packers secondary is banged up; they'll be without CB Tramon Williams, and S Nick Collins.

WEEK 2: 1-1-1, Bet $150, Claimed $141.67

SEASON: 2-2-2, Bet $300, Claimed $287.12, DOWN $12.88

Week 2 Power Rankings: Premature Congratulations

If you want this kid's trophy, you'll have to pry it out of his cold, dead, juvenile diabetic hands.

Look, we're two weeks in. We may think we know how this season's panning out, but really, it's two weeks. As defending league champion Mr. X reminded me, two years ago he started out 2-0 and went 1-11 over the final 11 weeks. It's early. In fact, in the interest of keeping this purposely muddled and brief, we're doing only one or two lines of commentary for each team.

1. Adam (2-0, 316.8 pts)

2. Shelby (2-0, 348.7 pts)

I give Adam a nod because Brady isn't a huge advantage over Brees, but Ray Rice certainly is over Peyton Hillis. Besides, Shelby's team has been hit HARD by the injury bug (Austin, Manningham, Aaron Hernandez) and I see him struggling a little for the next week or two.

3. Aaron (1-1, 243.1)

4. Jordan (0-2, 246.6)

Take your pick, but both teams have dynamic duos at running back (Peterson and Forte, McCoy and McFadden), but I give the nod to the team with the proven QB that's underachieving (Roethlisberger) instead of the overachieving rookie (Cam Newton).

5. Craig (1-1, 270.3)

By the way, your 2011 Keynote Speakers at the Overachievement Conference: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jahvid Best, and Fred Jackson. Double down on those Bills, Craigger!

6. Ryan (2-0, 259.8)

The defending champ is 2-0, which is probably all the reason I need to give for putting him in the top half of the rankings.

7. Dave (1-1, 253.6)

8. Mike (0-2, 245.4)

Love Dave's Megatron-Welker-Mike Williams troika. That's enough to get the edge over Mike's squad, which has a few more question marks as I see it.

9. Melvin (0-2, 210.1)

This team could make some noise, it's just waiting for Chris Johnson to break out of hibernation.

10. Rich (2-0, 210.2)

He's won the "Winning By The Skin Of Your Ballbag" award PRESENTED BY GMC, twice already. He isn't scoring but neither are his opponents. Irony Dept: Chad Ochocinco is currently 85th in WR scoring.

11. Shawn (1-1, 208.6)

I still say Flacco dooms this team. Shawn has some sleeping giants at WR though.

12. Hefty (0-2, 206.7)

I call shenanigans on Katy Perry. I really don't think she's the type of girl who's having casual group sex, getting blackout drunk, and committing arrestable crimes on a weekly basis. Oh, and my team blows by the way.

Grade The Trade: Melvin's Clearinghouse Edition

Matt Melvin wants to seeya in a Kia!

The Trade: Melvin sends Malcom Floyd and Ahmad Bradshaw to Mr. X in exchange for Reggie Wayne and Ryan Grant.

The Breakdown: Melvin makes his second (!!!) trade of the young season, in your classic "Bad WR-Good RB for Good WR-Bad RB" deal. Every single player in this trade comes with a question mark. For Floyd, it's a groin injury and low reception totals. For Bradshaw, it's injury history and Brandon Jacobs vulturing the goal line carries. For Reggie Wayne, it's the Colts' sagging offense behind Kerry Collins. For Ryan Grant, it's losing his job to James Starks. The best way to look at this deal is to see what it does to each team's lineups.

Melvin - With CJ2K and Ryan Matthews in tow, Melvin could afford to jettison a running back in order to get Braylon Edwards out of his WR3 spot. He now boasts a very solid receiving crew of Maclin, Wayne, and Devery Henderson, who keeps the seat warm until Marques Colston's collarbone is back in one piece. Overall, Melvin didn't subtract too much from his lineup, and made a nice addition. Ryan Grant now likely fills the RB4 spot behind CJ Spiller.

Mr. X - With his entire bench a MASH Unit (seriously, go check his team out. Everybody on the bench is questionable, other than the Saints D and Sam Bradford), X needed a healthy body at RB. He got one, and the fact that Bradshaw is playing the atrocious Eagles run defense this week is a delicious perk. Whether or not you think Ryan won this trade really comes down to whether or not you want to trust Steve Smith (CAR) week in and week out. With a WR3 you have that flexibility. With a WR2, you do not. Listen, I know Cam Newton is making a star out of Smith so far this season, but that well's going to dry up faster than Chaz Bono's discarded ovaries (High five for the tranny joke, bro!!!). I understand the need for Ryan to have done something to address the need at RB. I'm just not certain this was the best move to make for overall roster structure. If I were in his shoes, you bet your sweet bippy I would have been trying to sell high on Smith.

My Grade: Melvin improves his 2011 trade record to 2-0 with another slight victory.

Week 2 Photo Finishes: Now With 50% Less Drama!

Pictured: The only way Rich can lose tonight.

Well this week's Photo Finish column is even easier to write than last week's, so let's knock it out.

Shelby, Davis and Mr. X have all clinched a win.

Craig beat Melvin unless Ahmad Bradshaw has a 44 point game in store for Melvin tonight, which is really just a longer way of saying Craig beat Melvin.

Aaron holds on over Jordan, who is down 35 points with only the Giants D/ST left in the tank.

The only whiff of suspense comes from our most ethnically diverse matchup, between Rich and Shawn. Rich is up by 4.5 points and has Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Gibson playing tonight. Shawn is down to only his kicker, Josh Brown. Really the only way there'd be any drama here is if Nicks wasn't playing (he's currently listed as Questionable), but all indications this morning are that he's a go. Two catches and 35 yards or so from Nicks should be enough to put this one out of range for a kicker to make up the difference. Rich cruises comfortably tonight.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I'm not doing Power Rankings every week (obviously), but after Week 2 seems like a good time to take the league's temperature. I'll try to get something up by mid-week. If you bozos want to make any trades, I'd be more than willing to grade those for you as well. That's my new thing now, I'm calling everybody bozo.