Playoff Prognostication Station - Who's Out? Who's In?

OUT

Reid - "You're going to start whether you like it or not!"
DonoVan - "I don't wanna! I wish you traded me to Chicago!"

IN
"Sure the life jacket helps, but it's really my massive mustache that keeps me afloat."

So, Week 12 is in the books. My friends, there is only one playoff spot left. 3 teams are fighting for the honor to be the last team in the top of the bracket and avoid the year long mockery that comes from not making the playoffs. Let's examine.

LOCKED OUT
Oops! I Crapped My Pants
Fecaldelphia Stinkpalmers

LOCKED IN (predicted seed):
San Jose Sharts (#1)
Dallas Diaper Poopy Heads (#2)
Shittsburgh Terrible Bowels (#3)
Colon Blow (#4)
Buffalo Butt Pills (#5)
Chocolate Hot Dogs (#6)
BVD Skidmark Mishap (#7)

You say - Hey, HEY, HEY! Mike's team is only 5-7, tied with Jonesy and only one game ahead of Aaron and Davis. That is true. But he's in and here's why. The worst Mike can finish is 5-8. So at the very least, he'd be tied for the 8th seed. Here is where all the weeks of high scoring are finally going to benefit him. There's no way he'll lose a tiebreaker. Mike has a season total of 1345 points. That's 191 more than Jonesy (1154), 119.5 more than Aaron (1225.5) and 140.4 more than Davis (1204.6). I don't see anyone being able to overtake his point total in just one week, even if he loses.

That leaves ONE playoff spot remaining.

THE CONTENDERS:

Buttsylvania Anal Leakage - 5-7 - 1154 total points. Win and he's in, simple as that. If he loses, he'll head to a tie-breaker against the winner of the DumpTanks/Burrito Rice matchup. That's someplace he can't afford to be has he trails Aaron and Adam by 65.5 and 50.6 points, respectively.

Andy Reid's Old Burrito Rice - 4-8 - 1225.5 total points. Aaron needs a win and a Jonesy loss for a shot. He's in excellent tie-breaker position with his total season points.

Alicia Smith's Dump Tanks - 4-8 - 1204.6 total points. Davis needs a win and also needs Jonesy to lose. His tie-breaker status would likely take out Jonesy as well.

Week 12: Photo Finishes

"Tight races + playoff implications = dirty shorts"

There are a few games yet to be decided in this the penultimate week of our fantasy regular season. Hearts will be broken, dreams will be realized and hopefully we'll all get to see a game worthy of avoiding the new episode of Prison Break.

Jonesy (+21.1) vs. Melvin (Reggie Bush) - Will he play, will he sit? Apparently, he's in, maybe. Regardless, I don't see Reggie having a big enough impact to tip the scales in Melvin's favor.
Prediction: Jonesy holds on and creeps towards a playoff birth. Who knew?!

Adam (+14.3, Marques Colston) vs. Mike (Drew Brees, Donald Driver) - Colston and Brees kinda cancel each other out, at least for TDs. Mike needs the Saint's QB to throw darts to everyone except Colston.
Prediction: Mike wins on the strength of Brees spreading it around.

Craig (+6, Greg Jennings, Ryan Grant) vs. Shawn (Aaron Rodgers) - The same thing for canceling each other out can be said for Jennings and Rodgers. Blow needs a big day from Grant to seal the deal.
Prediction: Craig hangs on and clinches a playoff berth.

Week 11 Power Rankings: Playoff Mania

It's that time of year boys. With only 2 weeks of the regular season left, the playoffs are starting to take shape!! Feast your eyes on the prognostications of ALSAP!!!

#1 Jordan (9-2, W5, 109.4 avg, Previously #2) - He's not scoring the most, but he has the longest current winning streak in the league with 5 straight victories. That puts him in the top spot, for now. Tough, tough match-ups against the Butt Pills and Skidmark end the regular season.
Playoffs IN/OUT: IN
Seed Prediction: #3 (10-3)

#2 Melvin (9-2, W2, 114.4 avg, Previously #3) - Melvin is poised to take over the top playoff seed. He's been the highest and most consistent scorer all season and will be rewarded with a first round playoff matchup against a cast-off team with half the wins.
Playoffs IN/OUT: IN
Seed Prediction: #1 (10-3)

#3 Hefty (8-3, W1, 113.8 avg, Previously #1) - Hefty is the 3rd league member to lock up a playoff spot. He also has it pretty easy going forward facing Dave and Shawn in his final two games. While his scoring has dipped the last two weeks, the combo of Westbrook and Turner is frighteningly dangerous for a playoff run.
Playoffs IN/OUT: IN
Seed Prediction: #2 (10-3)

#4 Rich (7-4, W3, 107.5 avg, Previously #4) - Rich has reeled off three big wins in a row and has clinched himself a playoff spot. He's also put up some serious points (248) in the last two weeks which means his team is peaking at the right time. He has a tough game against the Sharts then finishes with Anal Leakage.
Playoffs IN/OUT: IN
Seed Prediction: #5 (8-5)

#5 Craig (6-5, W2, 116.6 avg, Previously #5) - Colon Blow has been straight dominant over the last two weeks taking over the overall points lead from Melvin. The issue is the early season play that lead to a 4-5 start. This is truly a Jekyl and Hyde team that averages 97.9 in its 5 losses and 132.3 in its 6 wins. Blow ends the season with My Pants and Poopy Heads.
Playoffs IN/OUT: IN
Seed Prediction: #4 (8-5)

#6 Mike (4-7, L1, 110.8 avg, Previously #8) - Mike is 1-1 since the last power rankings and just can't seem to get his team to turn the corner. He's #4 overall in scoring and has little to show for it. He ends the season facing Dump Tanks and Sharts. I think he still has a playoff charge left in him.
Playoffs IN/OUT: IN
Seed Prediction: #7 (6-7)

#7 Shelby (6-5, L2, 95.9 avg, Previously #6) - CHD will make the playoffs, somehow. A 10 out 12 scoring average doesn't do much for his hopes of staying in the playoffs for more than one round, but he'll be there. He ends the season with two bottom dwellars in Dave and Aaron.
Playoffs IN/OUT: IN
Seed Prediction: #6 (7-6)

#8 Adam (4-7, L1, 99.7 avg, Previously #12) - Adam is a big mover here because the bottom of the league really can't hold anything together. We have 3 teams at 4-7 and 3 teams at 3-8. It's like picking through garbage to find that half-eaten bagel that still has some cream cheese and was only 1/3 of the way buried in the can. My pick is for Adam to get in, finally, the spreadsheet pays off.
Playoffs IN/OUT: IN
Seed Prediction: #8 (5-8)

#9 Aaron (3-8, W1, 99.4 avg, Previously #11) - Aaron has showed some life of late, going 3-1 over his last 4. Unfortunately, I think it's too little, too late. He has to win out and get some help in the scoring tiebreakers to make the playoffs.
Playoffs IN/OUT: OUT

#10 Jonesey (4-7, L2, 93.1 avg, Previously #7) - Anal Leakage has hit the skids after winning 3 straight to climb back into the race. The 12th scoring average isn't helping. Killer games against Melvin and Rich will seal the fate of this Westside FFBer's first season. Please, PLEASE, play next year!
Playoffs IN/OUT: OUT

#11 Shawn (3-8, L5, 103.6 avg, Previously #9) - His team just got sent back to Cincinatti for violating a team rule. Here's looking ahead to 2009.
Playoffs IN/OUT: OUT

#12 Dave (3-8, L3, 94.1 avg, Previously #10) - An all to familiar place for Dave at the end of the fantasy football season. I had high hopes that this would be the year the StinkPalmers, formerly the Delaware Ding-Dong Danglerz, would crack the playoff scene. There is just too much to overcome in the final two weeks.
Playoffs IN/OUT: OUT

Week 11: The Tony Awards

Let's cut to the chase with this one as I'm going to spend more time on the Power Rankings anyway.

Rich def. Dave - And the Tony goes to Giants D. Without the 26 points put up as the Giants destroyed the Ravens, Rich would not have taken a step closer to locking up a playoff spot.

Melvin def. Mike - And the Tony goes to Larry Fitzgerald. 21 points in a win against the Seahawks made up for a rather average week by the rest of Melvin's team.

Craig def. Adam - And the Tony goes to DeAngelo Williams. Again a pretty difficult decision here as the week's high scoring team had 3 players go over 24 points. Williams' 56 yard TD scamper set the tone for the beat down of the Dump Tanks.

Aaron def. Shawn - And the Tony goes to Anquan Boldin. The NFLs leading receiver has done it again. His 25.5 points were too much for Oops! to overcome.

Jordan def. Jonesy - And the Tony goes to Dwayne Bowe. Jordan's pick up of this talented 3rd receiver really paid off this week. His 20.5 points in a losing effort to the Saints set up the Sharts for the win in this low-scoring matchup.

Hefty def. Shelby - And the Tony goes to Michael Turner. The Falcon's stud continued his torrid season with a 20 point outburst. The Terrible Bowels needed every one of those points as they only beat out the CHDs by 4.9 points.

Week 10: The Tony Awards

"I know, it's huge. Thanks for noticing."

I don't know why, but that picture just made me LoL at my office so in the blog it goes! Our man and Hefty's other love interest is back in the game this week, so hopefully that will make for some interesting story lines come Monday morning. For now, let's recap the studs from week 10 that propelled their teams to victory!


Rich def. Aaron - And the Tony goes to Jay Cutler. 3TDs and 447 yards!! Wowzers! His 41 points allowed Rich to squeak by Aaron after Burrito Rice posted a valiant effort in MNF. Close game and all the more reason to play against the league average!! Yay for evidence based arguments!


Mike def. Dave - And the Tony goes to Thomas Jones. In another tight game this week the Jets runningback saved Mike by going for 150 yards and 3TDs of his own. It was easily his highest scoring game of the season. Will he be able to continue the upward trend against the nemesis Patriots? NFL Network will tell us tonight!


Jordan def. Hefty - And the Tony goes to Adrian Peterson. When you MUST have a win, lean on your studs. The #2 overall pick didn't disappoint. Peterson is now the NFL's leading rusher and his 30.5 points in week 10 made sure Hefty wouldn't be seeing the top of the standings anytime soon.


Craig def. Jonesy - And the Tony goes to Tyler Thigpen. Raise your hand if you had heard of Thigpen before the season. No one? Not surprising. This guy has come out of no where to record three straight off the chart fantasy weeks. His 32.7 points were topped only by Warner and Cutler. That's impressive and a premonition for later in this column. Truthfully, this was a hard one to pick. Four guys on my team scored 24 or more points. That's balance and that's deadly.


Adam def. Shawn - And the Tony goes to Maurice Jones-Drew. If you haven't been paying attention, MJD has a monster game every 3rd week. In games 3, 6 and 9 he's scored 24, 29 and 28 points respectively. In all other games he's totaled 49 points. That means he'll have a huge week to get Adam into the playoffs in week 13 and then another huge week to win Adam the title, right?


Melvin def. Shelby - And the Tony goes to Kurt Warner. Melvin was down going into MNF. But Warner continued his MVP campaign by slicing and dicing the 49ers to the tune of 328 yards and 3 scores. He's cut down on the turnovers too, with only 3 in his last five games. That either means he's corrected something or he's due for another six turnover meltdown like he had against the Jets.

Week 10: Photo Finishes

"Melvin in lane 2 and Rich in lane 5 pull ahead of the competition!"

There are a couple games that won't be decided until the smoke has cleared at the University of Phoenix Stadium tonight. Let's see who's walking away with a W.

Shelby (+4.1, Frank Gore) vs. Melvin (Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald) - This one is pretty simple from where I stand. Frank Gore puts up about 16 points a game. Warner and Fitzgerald combine for about 40 points every week.
Prediction: Melvin wins to take over the #1 spot.

Rich (+29.6) vs. Aaron (Anquan Boldin) - Boldin's best week of the year is 39 points against the Dolphins in week 2. Since then he's had plates put in his face to he could be more like Wolverine. He'll need the same effort to help Aaron stop Rich from going to 6-4.
Prediction: Rich hangs on to solidify the #5 spot.

Monday Morning Whine-o: Play More Games

So we're here now about to complete the 10th week of our fantasy season. I'm 5-5. Not bad, not great either. I could make the playoffs comfortably, I could miss them all together. The problem is, I feel like I have a pretty damn good team, but the results aren't showing in the record.

Here's what I proposed earlier in the year (albeit selfishly) for our scoring system in the coming years of Westside Fantasy Football VII and beyond. Not only would you play a head-to-head game, you'd play against the league scoring average on any given week. This would create a system where if one team scored a lot of points but got beat by the highest scoring team in the league that week, they'd still get something out of it. Below you'll see the statistical analysis of our league currently and what things would look like if we used the scoring average system.

This is just an idea, but I think it creates a little more parody. Week 10 is included based on projected points.

Current: #1 Melvin (8-2); #2 Jordan (8-2); #3 Hefty (7-3); #4 Rich (6-4); #5 Shelby (6-4); #6 Craig (5-5); #7 Mike (4-6); #8 Adam (4-6); #9 Jonesy (4-6); #10 Shawn (3-7); #11 Dave (3-7); #12 Aaron (2-8).

Weekly league scoring average: Week 1 - 98.7; Week 2 - 109.5; Week 3 - 103.3; Week 4 - 103.8; Week 5 - 105.5; Week 6 - 103.4; Week 7 - 106.5; Week 8 - 110.5; Week 9 - 99.3; Week 10 - 113.7.

Records with weekly scoring averages factored in: #1 Melvin (15-5); #2 Hefty (14-6); #3 Jordan (14-6); #4 Craig (12-8); #5 Rich (11-9); #6 Mike (9-11); #7 Shawn (9-11); #8 Adam (9-11); #9 Shelby (9-11); #10 Dave (7-13); #11 Aaron (6-14); #12 Jonesy (6-14). (Overall points used as tie breakers).

Only Melvin and Adam maintain their current positions using this formula. Everyone else moves at least one spot in either direction. Personally, I think it's more representative of how good each team is. Again, it helps me as much as anyone.

For fun -
Records if just the scoring average was used: #1 Craig (7-3); #2 Melvin (7-3); #3 Hefty (7-3); #4 Jordan (6-4); #5 Rich (6-4); #6 Shawn (6-4); #7 Mike (5-5); #8 Adam (5-5); #9 Dave (4-6); #10 Aaron (4-6); #11 Shelby (3-7); #12 Jonesy (2-8).

So there you have my arguments for adding this additional element to our league. That and awarding players for punt and kickoff return TDs, right Hester?! I mean, Hefty?!