Free Money!! Your Week 1 NFL Picks

Crack open a white wine spritzer and join me for some Week 1 NFL picks!!

There are very few reasons why someone with a borderline gambling addiction would voluntarily stop gambling. Maybe he got in too deep with the mob. Maybe his bookie broke his legs. Maybe he replaced the thrill of the bet with Jesus or black tar heroin. Most of the time, though, it's because he's terrible at it and he has a moment of clarity. That was the case with me. After college, I had the glorious cocktail of a steady income, no local friends, no bills ($550 rent!! I would murder a family of 6 to pay that little again.), a gas leak in the apartment (maybe that explains the low rent), more boxed sangria than a quinceanara, and a Sportsbook.com account.

I bet. And I bet often. I lost often. When I won, I would roll that money into the next bet. I'll let you guess how that worked out.

Looking back now, I'm pretty sure my biggest problem was the way I bet. I made a lot of sucker bets like three-team parlays, promising a big payoff if I got three games right on the same day. I bet sports I didn't follow closely, like European soccer. I bet on longshots to win futures bets, like exact outcomes to seven game series. I bet ridiculous things like political outcomes (Hillary winning the presidency in 2008 would have brought in something like 35-1 when I placed the bet in 2005. No wonder I'm not an Obama fan.). Shit, I might have even laid some action on the Oscars one year if I'm remembering correctly. Did I mention the gas leak in my apartment yet?

Anyway, the point is I was spraying wildly with a shotgun when I should have been taking aim with a rifle. So, now I'm going to test my theory. Although I'm in no way going to gamble on any of these games with actual money (not a Bill Simmons-schtick, just spending all my spare coin on diapers lately), I'm going to make three NFL picks a week. We'll assume $50 per game, and I'll keep a running total throughout the year on how profitable or disastrous this NFL season would have turned out for me.

WEEK 1 LINES

TAMPA BAY (-1, -110) over Detroit: I like both of these teams this year. Tampa is an up and coming team that I could see in the playoffs, and Detroit has a great defensive line and a lot of young offensive weapons. The problem here is that Detroit has won a total of 2 road games in the past three years and they come into this game as more or less a pick 'em. I'll take Freeman and the Bucs to win their home opener.

Philadelphia (-5 1/2, -110) over ST. LOUIS: The dream team's season gets underway in St. Louis, and while the Rams can't be taken lightly, they certainly can't match the overall talent level of the Eagles. I see a Eagles offense with oodles of speed that gets to play on turf, and a young opposing QB in Sam Bradford, who gets first crack at navigating the choppy Nnamdi-DRC-Asante waters to move his team down the field. Don't see it happening.

ARIZONA (-7, -110) over Carolina: Cam Newton's first NFL start, on the road. If Kevin Kolb doesn't get a Stone Cold Stunner in the first half of the season like he did last year, I think the Cards win big.